Glick Report
  • July 29, 2009 10:37 AM EDT by Alexis Glick

    Why You Should Care About the CFTC's Proposed Rule Changes

    This morning's round table was about the CFTC's proposed rule changes to the oil markets. Ways to curb what they call speculators who some believe manipulate the market and add to the volatility in oil and as a consequence gasoline prices.

    The discussion about the risks to liquidity and consumer prices on a multitude of products was excellent. Personally, I learned a ton about it. This is a subject that I feel very strongly about.

    As a former trader, I understand position limits but I also know that to hedge risk we needed to make certain bets. If that makes you a speculator where do you go to hedge your portfolio risk? I fear changes being discussed will only worsen things. Add more volatility and less liquidity. Even worse the liquidity will go somewhere else. As we used to call it "off board." Most people today call it "over the counter" these days. Whatever you call it doesn't matter. People who have to hedge their risk will do it somewhere it's just a matter of where it goes. The perfect evidence of that was when the SEC put a temporary ban on short selling 19 financial institutions last summer. The short sellers or those making negative bets, all moved to the options market.

    Keep a very close eye on this story because it matters more to you than I think we realize.


KleerStreem

I need to understand when the price / barrel of oil is $50 and the price/gallon at the pump is $2.00, then the price of oil goes up and down and up and down, then 6 months later it goes back to $50 / barrel, yet the price / gallon at the pump only drops to $2.25 - $250. It seems to me this is not right. I basically believe the up and down fluctuations in oil prices is nothing more than actions to increase the baseline price of gasoline at the pump. Someday, will gas at the pump at $50 / barrel be in $3.50 - $4.50 a gallon at the pump? I know Exxon has a goal of selling gas at the pump of at least $5.00 / gallon, regardless of what the price is per barrel is. I suspect if oil/barrel prices go back to $150 / barrel, the price at the pump will be $5.00 +.

July 30, 2009 at 10:10 am

Jack Frayer

Increased volatility may occur with more regulation; but, this can be a good thing to promote alternative energy sources. If oil was in limitless supply like farm products, then controlled liquidity could be a positive to stabilize the economy. But oil is a limited supply product. This means that price must follow real demand to encourage product replacement. Oil speculation is an artificial manipulation that impacts the price over the short term. Yes I know, corporate executives are only concerned with the next few quarters numbers. They don't care about what happens ten years from now.

July 29, 2009 at 3:35 pm

chuck

Alexis the gas price issue honestly goes beyond the CFTC and speculators. I learned during my own reserch the role that jobbers play in the gas price mix. For example when does any jobber have the right via through contract or otherwise can tell a store like Walmart they can't put in gas pumps? It happen down here with the Super Walmart and the jobber who sold them the property. Now is this case for federal antitrust suit? Now Kroger, a competitior finally got their gas pumps in last year. The same jobber here told them they couldn't put in gas pumps. Now back in 06 when this town's gas prices were at the national and northeast average and didn't drop below 2.00,locals were forced to get thier gas elsewhere where it was cheeper. Plus they were upset thhe local jobber. Now Pantry Kangeroo had something to do with this at the time. Now a new wrinkle to look into: how much do jobbers sell gas to the local gas stations? The Post tried to find that out but couldn't. But now with speculators under the microscope,jobbers should be too.

July 29, 2009 at 11:43 am

about this blog

  • Alexis Glick is an anchor for FOX Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, Glick served as a correspondent for the Today Show and co-anchored the third hour of that program. Before her stint at NBC News, she was the senior trading correspondent for CNBC and reported from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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