Back in Davos, With a Grim Outlook

One year ago today I wrote the first Glick Report on my inaugural visit to Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum. It was entitled, "Welcome to the Glick Report." In that first blog I talked about the thrill and excitement of attending this world-renowned event and what I hoped to learn from my interviews. If you get a chance to look at that blog, it'll help refresh your memory about where we were one year ago.As I sat on the plane yesterday, I re-read all of my Davos blogs. I was exceptionally enthusiastic a year ago about coming to Davos and yet wildly bearish. I hate to say it, but I am even more bearish this year. The theme for this year's Forum is "Shaping the Post-Crisis World." The key themes and topics will be assessing risk, governance, global regulation and addressing the new global economy. Leading up to the World Economic Forum each year the Forum releases a report. Last year's WEF report rightly predicted a systemic crisis in the financial sector, as well as volatility in energy markets and food shortages. All three of these predictions came to fruition. This year the global risks consist of the following:

1. The outlook for the global economy remains grim. Markets will remain volatile as liquidity has not returned to the markets.

2. Unemployment will continue to rise as confidence remains at record lows.

3. The WEF predicts the U.S. economy could drag the Chinese Eeonomy down to 6% growth as opposed to the current 8% target. This could have widespread implications.

4. Asset prices around the globe in equities, housing and corporate debt will continue to fall. In fact, they suggest the markets will be flooded with more assets than they can absorb. This will trigger further erosion in assets and massive government spending and intervention particularly in the financial arena.

The WEF has always been a very important meeting. This year will have even greater significance as it precedes two very crucial meetings: the G20 in April and G8 in July. There has been a great deal of talk about coordinated efforts to regulate the Global Economy and some disension among different members of the G8 nations. Some have suggested the failure of the financial institutions this year exposed a lack of coordination among policy-makers, regulators and Heads of State. All members of the G8 countries central bank chiefs will be present, with the exception of the Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. Some will speculate the Fed Chair could not leave because of the two-day Fed policy meeting and the crisis on the homeland. Some will speculate that the Fed is not represented because we do not believe in creating one governing body to oversee global financial markets. These discussions will shape many controversial discussions about how interconnected our economies now are.

I am once again thrilled, excited and eager to ask the tough questions. Just as I did last year, I will send updates every couple of hours and give you the behind the scenes page six perspective. Wait until you hear about my ride last night and the hotel...can you say "The Shining!"

See you in a couple hours. Hope you're watching. We have an AMAZING line-up. Trust me, you won't want to miss it.