Glick Report
  • December 4, 2008 08:45 AM EST by Alexis Glick

    The Data is Stacking Against Us

    Yesterday was a very cool day! It's not every day that you get the first interview with the President of Anheuser Busch since they merged with InBev, not to mention interviews with the Blockbuster CEO, the Chairman and CEO of American Electric Power, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter and Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. It was one of those days where I can honestly say I love my job.

    Its days like this that I am reminded of how lucky I am to have the opportunity to meet the kind of people I meet and ask the questions that I get to ask. The unfortunate part of the job over the past six months is that the responses haven't been as upbeat. The news hasn't been as good and the cautious outlook has become mainstream. 

    I have talked to experts who have been in their respective fields for 30 years, in some cases more, and they are scared. I have never seen the sense of fear that I see in people's faces, the fear of the unknown. The kind of fear you see in a kids face when they have lost their parents in a crowded park. They wait for mom or dad to come find them or run to a security guard hoping the security guard will find them. Only in this case, they can't be found. The parents are just as lost, stuck in the crowds and unable to make it back right away.  

    That would be difficult for any child to digest, let alone an adult. Now imagine that adult is responsible for tens of thousands of employees, billions of dollars in revenues, maintaining morale, speaking to creditors, and negotiating with suppliers, all the while knowing that there is no magic pill. No matter what they do to prevent the worst from happening, it will get worse. Eerily reminiscent of when your child is about to fall and you don’t make it on time. You would do anything to prevent them from hurting themselves yet you know no matter how much you want to protect them they will fall. 

    I say this because the data is stacking up against us. Look at what we have learned in the past couple of days.

    1. The Challenger, Gray and Christmas jobs number and the ADP Private Sector jobs data reported declines of 181,000 and 250,000 jobs in November. This does not bode well for Friday’s data which means forecasts for 300,000 job losses from the Bureau of Labor Statistics could be a lot worse. 

    2. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Credit Bureau TransUnion forecasted the number of consumers with homes two months or more overdue will spike to 7.17% at the end of 2009 from estimates of 4.67% for the end of this year, a 16 year high, due to adjustable rate mortgages about to reset. They don’t see mortgage delinquencies peaking until the first quarter of 2010.

    3. While I’d like to believe all of the economists who tell me we will come out of the recession in the third quarter of next year, I don’t buy it. In some places like New York City we haven’t even seen real estate prices collapse like they have around the rest of the country yet tens of thousands of people are receiving pink slips and the city is in dire straits.

    4. State and local municipalities are bleeding and now asking for as much as $176 billion dollars of the rumored $500 billion dollar fiscal stimulus plan that will be proposed under Obama’s new Administration. $136 billion of it for “ready to go” projects and $40 billion for Medicaid grants. This after we gave the states $20 billion in Medicaid grants post 9/11 although they were not dispensed until 2003. Now talk of the Treasury or perhaps the Federal Reserve Bank purchasing municipal paper. When does it stop? Your guess is as good as mine. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty joined me the other day before the Governor’s meeting with President-elect Obama about his plans. He flat out said we can’t rely entirely on the government to fix our fiscal houses, “The Federal Government is broke.” 

    5. Don’t even get me started on the auto makers who upped the funding requests to $34 billion. GM asked for an additional $6 billion dollars and said they’ll be out of business by year end if they don’t get $4 billion immediately. I can’t speak about this story without losing my marbles. Today I will be interviewing Chrysler’s CEO Bob Nardelli at 4pm. Can’t wait for that. 

    6. How about the 49 state colleges that flunked the affordability test? The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education released a report that said college tuition and fees have escalated 439% from 1982 to 2007 while median family income rose 147%. Student borrowing has doubled. Last year, the cost of a four-year public university education cost 28% of a median family’s income while a private university education cost 76% of a median family’s income. Do those numbers scare you? Shock you? Here in New York City families are packing up and moving to the suburbs because education costs are so high. The cost of sending your family to a public school in a suburb of New York City could be a small fraction of what you’ll pay in Manhattan. What are we going to do when public schools across the country see enrollment increase by double digits next year while their funds are being cut? Will we sacrifice our children’s education in a recession? 

    7. Saks Fifth Avenue this morning, once considered the gold standard, had its debt lowered by S&P to B from BB- with a stable outlook. S&P slams them for the same-store sales decline of 11.5% in the 3rd quarter and says the next three quarters will see profitability decline. “We would consider changing the outlook to negative if Saks is unable to improve margins and credit measures in 2009 as a result of its need to remain highly promotional to clear inventory.” I don’t know if you have gone in there lately but it’s not nearly as crowded as it should be this time of year especially given the location across from Rockefeller Center here in Manhattan. I have purchased items there, kept the tags on and asked to get credit back when I knew huge sales were happening at other department stores. Bloomingdale’s twice refunded me 20% when I brought the items back in with the receipt. Saks would have none of it. So after a month of saying no, I returned everything that I purchased with them.  

    8. How about our friend Treasury Secretary Paulson who reportedly is considering going back to Congress next week to ask for the other $350 billion dollars. Is that insane? What are we thinking? He just stood up at a press conference two weeks ago and said he would not ask for the remaining funds. When he talks, the markets get hammered. What will that do to the market next week when he has to testify in front of the Senate and Congress as to why he wants the funds and how he plans to use them? Can we afford to watch lawmakers crucify him for what he has or hasn’t accomplished with the first $350 billion dollars? What kind of signal does that send to the market if he feels he needs to ask for the money with less than six weeks until the new Administration takes office?
    I don't want to be a downer but the facts are the facts and they're not pretty.

Tim McNally

I grew up in Joplin, Missouri during the late 40's & 50's. Neither of my parents finished high school. My mother went to work in a shoe factory when she was 13 years old. My dad started painting signs in the 10th grade and made more than his parents. Both of them lived thru the Great Depression & WWII. Dad was gone from 1942 to 1946. My sister and I lived in a small two bedroom, one bath house my parents bought after WWII. I say this not to "cry poor" but to say my sister and I learned that "stuff" doesn't make you happy. I think many people are afraid they'll loose everything and then die. Few people die from lack of stuff. My sister and I understand that as long as we have HOPE and faith in a Higher Power, things will work out. We saw it clearly when we were growing up! If you don't have faith in a God of YOUR understanding then fear will become your master.

December 4, 2008 at 9:52 am

Burnsie

Way to go, T-Paw (Tim Pawlenty, MN Gov)!!! Finally, something smart out of that dude's mouth. However, usually if things I own are broken I make an attempt or 2 to fix it but after a while I toss it out and get something new. Why would we think the Gov't can fix anything, really? Shame on our Gov't and shame on these companies for creating this gaping hole that they throw my hard earned monies down. We, as citizens, deserve much better than this. Why is there such a lack of leadership and insight? Are people not smarter than this? Sheesh...

December 4, 2008 at 10:13 am

John

We have lost our minds!

December 4, 2008 at 11:35 am

Mark

Here is what I do not get: 1) Where is the personal dignity and pride? These CEO's waltz into Washington for a handout without batting an eye. I would be ashamed, and I surely would not go the taxpayer until my company, it's employees and my family had given everything we could to solve the problem. These guys go in and ask for a handout at the beginning. Am I old fashioned? I do not know about GM, Ford and Chrysler, but their CEO's and Union bosses deserve to fail. They have failed the american worker, as well as every taxpayer in this country. Most importantly they have failed and circumvented the American Dream to the point it is no longer even a mirage of what it once was. If we do not reinstate true American Values in every aspect of our country, we are doomed to fail. Regardless of the state of GM, Citicorp, Sachs, etc.

December 4, 2008 at 11:54 am

Ken Osterlund

You are "Debby Downer". We are in a recession that will be followed by the depression, and then followed by the recovery - natural cycle. Now is the time to be looking for opportunities. When the depression occurs and how long it will last, who knows. Companies with good capital will never go to zero, just like gold. Keep the faith.

December 4, 2008 at 12:23 pm

Dennis

This will all be over very soon! As soon as Obama officially takes control, the press will go easy on all the negative in the economy, they have a vested interest to make him look good. When all the doom and gloom is eliminted from the headlines, life will go on as usual. As far as the CEO's looking scared, I'm sure it's a great act to get some bailout money. Call me a cynic, but, I've seen it before.

December 4, 2008 at 12:36 pm

Steve

Alexis, It sounds like you are finally coming to grips with what alot of Americans already know. We are heading into a deep, very deep depression. With hyper-inflation as the topping, considering the government is weakening our currency every day. It's gonna get bad and I suggest that if you haven't already made your emergency food storage and divested all of your $ for gold and silver you do so immediately. That is of course if you can find any gold and silver left - it's being horded by those who know.

December 4, 2008 at 2:18 pm

Charlie

Looks like Chris Laird and Glenn Beck have been right all along.

December 4, 2008 at 2:41 pm

Max

If you believe in the Old Testament, depressions are a normal phenomenon which everyone should prepare for but not fear. The proverbial 7 years of feast followed by 7 years of famine, 7 fat cows followed by 7 lean cows, 7 healthy heads of grain followed by 7 heads of grain scorched by the east wind, is not a political event attibutable to any leader of political party (Indeed, the same Egyptian Pharoah presided over the years of feast and famine). The instructions for handling depressions are clear and unequivocal. All governments, all companies, and all individuals should gather when times are good and accumulate a surplus. The surplus is to be used as a means of support when the depression hits. What amazes me is that in spite of this ancient teaching, our national, state and local governments borrowed and spent when times were good and failed to accumulate surpluses. Many companies and individals did the same thing. The remedy that is being advanced by both parties, namely borrowing trillions of dollars against the well being of future generations, is so contary to the proverbial teaching that it seem doomed to absolute failure. Depressions are a form of economic winter that have happened to everyone at least once in a lifetime since our country was founded. No one can prevent winter from happening. All anyone can do is bundle up, keep your furnaces in good repair, and be prepared when it hits. By the way, I totally agree with everything Jim Rogers said in your videos. I watch for this blog and look forward to reading it.

December 4, 2008 at 2:41 pm

6ftrabbit

The the Detroit numbers keep going up. Watching CSPAN just now, and the Moody's guy said that he expects the total bill for the taxpayer will likely be somewhere between 75 and $125 billion in the next 2 years. Whoopee! Sock it to me! Sock it to me! Sock it to me!

December 4, 2008 at 2:42 pm

mike frick

How does taking (stealing) my money and giving it to a company that was not competitive in the marketplace save jobs? If the company was not producing a product that the consumer wanted at a price the consumer would pay, the company cannot sustain itself. Taking my money to pay those to continue to produce unwanted products at the undesired price will only prolong the inevitable. When the money is gone, the jobs will still be lost and I will be poorer for it. Get real. Keep government out of economics. Manipulating the market for political reasons is not in the interest of liberty for the individual or free markets. Mike Frick Yorkville, IL

December 4, 2008 at 3:25 pm

Randal

Alexis, Love listening to your insights and reporting on Fox Business and Fox News... I wish you would get deep into the auto industry numbers. The real estate the financial companies the manufacturing and the dealerships. The cursory reviews are redundant and actually uninformative. Ask Nardelli why he hasnt closed more plants, why they continue to invest in the "future" when there is no present......

December 4, 2008 at 3:34 pm

Randal

Alexis, Love listening to your insights and reporting on Fox Business and Fox News... I wish you would get deep into the auto industry numbers. The real estate the financial companies the manufacturing and the dealerships. The cursory reviews are redundant and actually uninformative. Ask Nardelli why he hasnt closed more plants, why they continue to invest in the "future" when there is no present...... I have built and sold two businesses and gone through tough times.... Please get off the surface and get deep into the numbers.

December 4, 2008 at 3:36 pm

Ken

????? Is this suppose to be breaking news??

December 4, 2008 at 3:57 pm

Tom

If truly want reform & accountability we need to look past Japan's recession, past the depression and more than a couple of centuries ago for solid advice. I never thought I'd say (type) this but the French were correct. The greatest tool of reformation has been the guillotine, this would adequately replace the "TARP" and nullify your unpleasant data Mrs. Glick. Let's put meaning back into the cliche "Heads will roll!" Happy Holidays.

December 4, 2008 at 4:18 pm

freddie the freeloader

Deep down inside, we knew it would come to this. They screwed us. They really, really screwed us (with many thanks to Sally Fields!). I hope that God has mercy on their souls, for I, and many others, will be hard pressed to forgive them as they sail off into the sunset to their Carribean islands leaving Mr. and Ms. America to sweat, starve, strive, and barely survive. Our government and our business leaders have run amuck over the American economy, raping and pillaging their way towards their golden parachutes. Most of us play fair. Most of us are law-abiding. If our corporate leaders are criminals and our officials don't prosecute them, the lesson is lost. We are lost. We are, aren't we?

December 4, 2008 at 4:22 pm

Shelby

I can't wait to see the Nardelli interview! Hope it went well. I read Greta's blog yesterday about him rejecting her interview: http://gretawire.foxnews.com/2008/12/03/this-is-too-much-wait-until-you-read-this-chrysler-ceo-nardelli/ Interesting stuff. P.S. Great Sharen Turney/ Victoria's Secret story! I was lucky enough to talk to her in Miami and I get the sense that she really believes in and loves her company's products.

December 4, 2008 at 4:31 pm

Jordan

Pretty much, I'm no economist, but I haven't seen anything but "more free money" parroted as a solution by those in power. They're just trying to push off the inevitable for a few more years. Hopefully GM will go down, the chaos will ensue, the markets will then correct regardless of what the gov does and the economy will rebuild on a solid foundation. I feel bad for those who have lost and are going to lose their jobs, but if your job was built on a company that was riding the bubble then there is no way to sustain the job. We're headed for hard times, and be prepared to fight our own government for our rights. Plenty of blame to go around. It's time to let the correction happen.

December 4, 2008 at 4:38 pm

Jim Turner

Well someone had to finally day the obvious "the emperor has no clothes on". You are the first of many.

December 4, 2008 at 4:46 pm

Umpire

I can't agree with you about Saks - never been in one. When asked to describe the fiscal situation, I suggest listening to the Abbott and Costello classic "Who's on First?". That's the best visualization of how I see Washington-they can't fix the problem because they don't understand the question.

December 4, 2008 at 5:35 pm

joebhed

Alexis, Your honest expression of the changing nature of economic views, and of the data that goes along with those views, is indeed refreshing today. I think you need to start off every day with an open mind about the fact that this indeed is the first day of the rest of our lives. Along with a sound understanding that the rest of our lives is not going to be like the days, years and generations that all went before. We start each day in an unprecedented situation, needing to look for alternative explanations about what to do. I hope that you can occasionally get out of the box where your job is related to seeing that investors get good advice on your programs. Honest, open-minded people know that each day opens a brand new dialogue about economics, money, politics and the unknowable future. Your post shows that this is the case today. I want to offer a suggestion. We cannot devise a solution to a problem without knowing, that is, truly understanding, its cause. The cause of the problems that we all face today can be broken down to its most essential element - debt money. In order to move forward, some people are going to have to get out front and declare the true problem. Debt money. ALL MONEY IS CREATED AS DEBT. Payable at interest. Lots of interest. That is not created. Except as more debt. The definition of unsustainability. Which is reflected in those faces you observe. Google Treasury System versus Federal Reserve. Google the Chicago Plan and FDR. Monetary reform. Or, an international FED of private bankers. Respectfully.

December 4, 2008 at 6:04 pm

Sam

1. Alexis, Thank you for waking up. You are now experiencing what most of Americans were experiencing two months ago. For me, the fear and anger over what my government is doing has subsided. I have contacted my reps and senators and they just continue to ignore my concerns. I have no control over the decisions government is making, but I can control how I prepare for the inevitable. Am I buying 500 rolls of toilet paper? No! I am preparing by reading more, keeping a watchful eye on the headlines, and doing what I need to do to look out for my family, friends and neighbors (I am in a rural community and yes we take care of our neighbors) for what is more than likely coming our way. The fear will subside once you realize you can only “prepare” for what is coming. We all know it is going to be worse than bad. However, we are Americans. We will get through it. Our government may be prolonging the inevitable, or maybe they are giving Americans time to prepare, whatever the case may be….Americans will need to be strong and be prepared to take care of each other. We may be knocked down, but Americans will always get back up! Love your show and keep up the good work! Sam

December 4, 2008 at 7:09 pm

mghorning

We can not begin a recovery until a bottom is raeched. The false floors we keep putting in place will have to stop. The auto companies should have walked out of congress, declared bankruptcy and started from the bottom. If Ford where to do this, they might be the third largest auto company in five years. I'm buying a house. How much is that house worth. Let the market fall and let the buyers come in. They are out there. They are waiting for the bottom.

December 4, 2008 at 9:34 pm

Ordinary Guy

Loved your article. The data is stacking against us because we are on the wrong path… and have been for a long time. A large group people in finance, unions, and government have conducted themselves like the Black Friday Wal-Mart shoppers who sold their humanity for $200. They are a mindless mob that has their sights set on what they want and will destroy anything or anyone that gets between them and their prize. Their kind has trampled to death every honorable principle that has held us together since the founding of our nation. Financial people, unions and government’s folly is that they truly believe that they are they creators of wealth, so it comes naturally to them to protect their own first. It should come as no surprise to us that they are doing what they have always done with motives that are selfish and self-centered. So, now the big three automakers are joining the mob. Let them go bankrupt. If they have any sand, they will survive it. I really believe that it is going to take a four prong approach to fix this problem. 1. Shore up financial institutions only where necessary and where it makes sense to do so. Heavily leveraged companies/banks must be allowed to fail. 2. Cut taxes heavily on corporations and small business. Now! 3. Cut taxes heavily on the American tax payer. Now! 4. Start cleaning house. Start with Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. It is easy – “You are fired! Don’t leave town. Department of Justice will be in touch.” Investigators – follow the money, stupid.

December 4, 2008 at 10:01 pm

Blake

The number one enemy to America today: The United States Congress. They got us here and they are presiding over a meltdown. Many are going to be called to task in the not-too-distant future. For 25 years, the quality of those representing us deteriorated. They were led around by anyone with cash. Now the jobs are gone. The bubbles have burst. The world is watching. Now, the piper wants paid and refuses to wait much longer. All the while, we are printing "band aids" and hoping that reality will never catch up. It will catch up. We are running but reality is running faster. The "average American" did not get us to this point. Our federal government is destroying the greatest nation in the world. Governments--at all levels--need to be virtually dismantled at this late stage of the game. They are all nearly bordering on insolvency. How long is it going to take? Not much longer. Think locally as we approach the spring of 2009 because that is where your actions will have the most impact. Spend time enforcing the shrinkage of your local and state governments and then turn your sights and attention onto the United States Congress. They are the ones with a bucketful of intellectual ineptitude.

December 5, 2008 at 7:57 am

about this blog

  • Alexis Glick is an anchor for FOX Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, Glick served as a correspondent for the Today Show and co-anchored the third hour of that program. Before her stint at NBC News, she was the senior trading correspondent for CNBC and reported from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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