Glick Report
  • December 4, 2008 08:45 AM EST by Alexis Glick

    The Data is Stacking Against Us

    Yesterday was a very cool day! It's not every day that you get the first interview with the President of Anheuser Busch since they merged with InBev, not to mention interviews with the Blockbuster CEO, the Chairman and CEO of American Electric Power, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter and Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter. It was one of those days where I can honestly say I love my job.

    Its days like this that I am reminded of how lucky I am to have the opportunity to meet the kind of people I meet and ask the questions that I get to ask. The unfortunate part of the job over the past six months is that the responses haven't been as upbeat. The news hasn't been as good and the cautious outlook has become mainstream. 

    I have talked to experts who have been in their respective fields for 30 years, in some cases more, and they are scared. I have never seen the sense of fear that I see in people's faces, the fear of the unknown. The kind of fear you see in a kids face when they have lost their parents in a crowded park. They wait for mom or dad to come find them or run to a security guard hoping the security guard will find them. Only in this case, they can't be found. The parents are just as lost, stuck in the crowds and unable to make it back right away.  

    That would be difficult for any child to digest, let alone an adult. Now imagine that adult is responsible for tens of thousands of employees, billions of dollars in revenues, maintaining morale, speaking to creditors, and negotiating with suppliers, all the while knowing that there is no magic pill. No matter what they do to prevent the worst from happening, it will get worse. Eerily reminiscent of when your child is about to fall and you don’t make it on time. You would do anything to prevent them from hurting themselves yet you know no matter how much you want to protect them they will fall. 

    I say this because the data is stacking up against us. Look at what we have learned in the past couple of days.

    1. The Challenger, Gray and Christmas jobs number and the ADP Private Sector jobs data reported declines of 181,000 and 250,000 jobs in November. This does not bode well for Friday’s data which means forecasts for 300,000 job losses from the Bureau of Labor Statistics could be a lot worse. 

    2. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Credit Bureau TransUnion forecasted the number of consumers with homes two months or more overdue will spike to 7.17% at the end of 2009 from estimates of 4.67% for the end of this year, a 16 year high, due to adjustable rate mortgages about to reset. They don’t see mortgage delinquencies peaking until the first quarter of 2010.

    3. While I’d like to believe all of the economists who tell me we will come out of the recession in the third quarter of next year, I don’t buy it. In some places like New York City we haven’t even seen real estate prices collapse like they have around the rest of the country yet tens of thousands of people are receiving pink slips and the city is in dire straits.

    4. State and local municipalities are bleeding and now asking for as much as $176 billion dollars of the rumored $500 billion dollar fiscal stimulus plan that will be proposed under Obama’s new Administration. $136 billion of it for “ready to go” projects and $40 billion for Medicaid grants. This after we gave the states $20 billion in Medicaid grants post 9/11 although they were not dispensed until 2003. Now talk of the Treasury or perhaps the Federal Reserve Bank purchasing municipal paper. When does it stop? Your guess is as good as mine. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty joined me the other day before the Governor’s meeting with President-elect Obama about his plans. He flat out said we can’t rely entirely on the government to fix our fiscal houses, “The Federal Government is broke.” 

    5. Don’t even get me started on the auto makers who upped the funding requests to $34 billion. GM asked for an additional $6 billion dollars and said they’ll be out of business by year end if they don’t get $4 billion immediately. I can’t speak about this story without losing my marbles. Today I will be interviewing Chrysler’s CEO Bob Nardelli at 4pm. Can’t wait for that. 

    6. How about the 49 state colleges that flunked the affordability test? The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education released a report that said college tuition and fees have escalated 439% from 1982 to 2007 while median family income rose 147%. Student borrowing has doubled. Last year, the cost of a four-year public university education cost 28% of a median family’s income while a private university education cost 76% of a median family’s income. Do those numbers scare you? Shock you? Here in New York City families are packing up and moving to the suburbs because education costs are so high. The cost of sending your family to a public school in a suburb of New York City could be a small fraction of what you’ll pay in Manhattan. What are we going to do when public schools across the country see enrollment increase by double digits next year while their funds are being cut? Will we sacrifice our children’s education in a recession? 

    7. Saks Fifth Avenue this morning, once considered the gold standard, had its debt lowered by S&P to B from BB- with a stable outlook. S&P slams them for the same-store sales decline of 11.5% in the 3rd quarter and says the next three quarters will see profitability decline. “We would consider changing the outlook to negative if Saks is unable to improve margins and credit measures in 2009 as a result of its need to remain highly promotional to clear inventory.” I don’t know if you have gone in there lately but it’s not nearly as crowded as it should be this time of year especially given the location across from Rockefeller Center here in Manhattan. I have purchased items there, kept the tags on and asked to get credit back when I knew huge sales were happening at other department stores. Bloomingdale’s twice refunded me 20% when I brought the items back in with the receipt. Saks would have none of it. So after a month of saying no, I returned everything that I purchased with them.  

    8. How about our friend Treasury Secretary Paulson who reportedly is considering going back to Congress next week to ask for the other $350 billion dollars. Is that insane? What are we thinking? He just stood up at a press conference two weeks ago and said he would not ask for the remaining funds. When he talks, the markets get hammered. What will that do to the market next week when he has to testify in front of the Senate and Congress as to why he wants the funds and how he plans to use them? Can we afford to watch lawmakers crucify him for what he has or hasn’t accomplished with the first $350 billion dollars? What kind of signal does that send to the market if he feels he needs to ask for the money with less than six weeks until the new Administration takes office?
    I don't want to be a downer but the facts are the facts and they're not pretty.

Mark

Doom and Gloom? Are you serious? The American people, the financial institutions and the Federal Government have spent themselves into a position of unbalanced assets vs liabilities. Now the solution is to spend more money bailing everyone out. How can this possibly work? It cannot. It is basic economics, and if being prepared for what is coming means "doom and gloom", then bring it on! Go to your local bank and tell them you need a loan to get out of debt, and let me know what they say.

December 8, 2008 at 11:56 am

Marichen Sheppard

My reality, My profession is a Real Estate Broker, A licensed residential contractor, this should give you a clue to my demise. My house is to be auctioned at the courthouse steps 12/18/08. I had to close my real estate firm and my construction company which resulted in my employee's loss of employment. I can not find employment, I am a single mom and I will be without health insurance at the end of December (no money to pay premium) I have a blood clot in my leg and on medication, No where to go. I remember my grandmother telling stories of the great depression, that is where we are heading! I have lost my credit, home and business and due to the stress, my health.

December 7, 2008 at 7:30 pm

Barney

This may be just what this administration has been needing. Has anyone noticed lately that the Bush war that is squandering 10 billion a month in Iraq is still going on? This coming depression is more of the Bush bunch fear theory__that if we are all acared about something, we will not notice what they are really up to. They are now using their last days in office to borrow and bleed the last available cash that the government can get hold of and hand it out to friends and cronies, just as they started eight years ago. Obama will begin with a wreck of a country that will take a generation to rebuild, if ever, and the disaster we have ahead can be blamed on him and his crew.

December 7, 2008 at 12:56 am

Publius

Turning the economy around is simple: 1. Cut corporate taxes to 0. 2. Cut the capital gains tax to 0. 3. Adopt a flat 15% personal income tax with a $20K deduction for self and each dependent. 4. Stop all bailouts and let the bankruptcy courts do what they have been created to do. 5. Abolish every agency of the federal government that has been established since 1960. (Wouldn't it be cool to read about the federal million man layoff!) (Bye, bye Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac! Tom Daschle, call your office!) 6. Sell off all assets of the federal government not directly related to national defense and use the proceeds to pay down the national debt. Let the fun begin! Can't wait to read the headlines about the depression in the Wasshington DC Beltway region! We don't need the Federal Government and the clueless twits in Congress "helping" us live our lives.

December 6, 2008 at 1:27 pm

David

If GM goes out of business how will they get parts to repair the Presidential fleet? What will all the politicians and their entourage ride in? Toyota's, Honda's, Kia's? The streets in the US will look like downtown Havana in a few years. Get out the duct tape and bailing wire! Mr. Goodwrench will no longer be at your service. It's the beginning of THE END.

December 6, 2008 at 9:37 am

Steven

Ricky, Gold has been a preferred asset on this world since man began to barter. It's value is stable and dependable. An ounce of Gold during the Depression bought a nice suit and an ounce of gold today will still buy a nice suit. Can you say that about the dollar? Or any other form of currency in use around the world today? You may not be able to eat it, drink it or smoke it, but rest assured you can buy all of those things with it. Not true for a currency that isn't backed by anything but faith - what happens when people lose that faith? Who will take that dollar when everyone knows it is worthless? Sure would be smart to have some gold laying around during those times. Oh, and no longer being on the gold standard is part of the reason we are having this meltdown. Do the research and you will see it is true.

December 6, 2008 at 1:02 am

Tom

I realize things are bad in a lot of ways, and seem to be getting worse. But, seriously, this constant "the sky is falling chicken little" pounding people are taking from the media has to stop. It seems like you guys and gals have been talking about us going into a recession for over two years now and it shouldn't really surprise anyone that the consumer, after hearing over and over for so long that we're in a recession, has cut back, things have slowed and now we're in a recession. There are companies out there that are doing well despite the current situation. I know you guys are wrapped up in this stuff 24/7 as part of your job, but seriously, it's doing more harm than good. I think the country as a whole would be in a lot better shape if it turned off the news for 12 months.

December 5, 2008 at 7:34 pm

Jane

It is frustrating to watch panic take hold of the stock market and the economy. While there are signs of difficulties in some areas of the economy, the majority of it is fine. Yet we hear all the doom and gloom from the media and nothing positive. It sends people into a panic. Then it all comes crashing down because of it. It will be interesting to see what happens when Obama gets into office. The media and the liberals believe he can walk on water so I won't be surprised if he is able to suddenly fix our economy and we start to see more positive news from our lovely media outlets. I just hope that not too many people lose their jobs and that good companies aren't destroyed in the process of trying to put Obama higher up on his pedastal.

December 5, 2008 at 1:10 pm

Ricky

Those of you saying to buy gold are just buying into yet another conspiracy by "the powers that be".. Think about it... Throughout the ages we've been programmed to believe gold was worth something... But in reality, it is not. You can't eat it, drink it, or smoke it... You can't build shelter with it , it doesn't supply energy , nothing ! It just looks pretty and ...it doesn't do anything. Its not even part of any monetary standard (which technically was just "because THEY said so" to use it to begin with). The fact that Limbaugh and those fellas advertise for gold does not mean thing... Greed and power have all kinds of bedfellows and it does not matter what political flag you fly...Gold! A conspiracy that shines!

December 5, 2008 at 10:54 am

Patricia

On the other side of the coin or in the half full glass... 94% of people are working.......6% are unemployed 95% of people who have mortgages pay on time.... 47% of the autos purchased in the USA are SOLD BY THE BIG 3 AUTO COMPANIES. The other 37 Foreign competitors have 53%. This is done by the Big 3 with no 21st Century USA Manufacturing Strategy. And I have to add.........This country is virutally bankrupt....why does Nancy Pelosi fly around in a PRIVATE JET MANNED BY THE GOVERNMENT? Shouldn't she be working for $1/year and flying commerial? There is money in the economy and there would be more if we were spending some.....maybe the doom and gloom being reported is causing lack of consumer confidence.

December 5, 2008 at 9:28 am

Blake

The number one enemy to America today: The United States Congress. They got us here and they are presiding over a meltdown. Many are going to be called to task in the not-too-distant future. For 25 years, the quality of those representing us deteriorated. They were led around by anyone with cash. Now the jobs are gone. The bubbles have burst. The world is watching. Now, the piper wants paid and refuses to wait much longer. All the while, we are printing "band aids" and hoping that reality will never catch up. It will catch up. We are running but reality is running faster. The "average American" did not get us to this point. Our federal government is destroying the greatest nation in the world. Governments--at all levels--need to be virtually dismantled at this late stage of the game. They are all nearly bordering on insolvency. How long is it going to take? Not much longer. Think locally as we approach the spring of 2009 because that is where your actions will have the most impact. Spend time enforcing the shrinkage of your local and state governments and then turn your sights and attention onto the United States Congress. They are the ones with a bucketful of intellectual ineptitude.

December 5, 2008 at 7:57 am

Ordinary Guy

Loved your article. The data is stacking against us because we are on the wrong path… and have been for a long time. A large group people in finance, unions, and government have conducted themselves like the Black Friday Wal-Mart shoppers who sold their humanity for $200. They are a mindless mob that has their sights set on what they want and will destroy anything or anyone that gets between them and their prize. Their kind has trampled to death every honorable principle that has held us together since the founding of our nation. Financial people, unions and government’s folly is that they truly believe that they are they creators of wealth, so it comes naturally to them to protect their own first. It should come as no surprise to us that they are doing what they have always done with motives that are selfish and self-centered. So, now the big three automakers are joining the mob. Let them go bankrupt. If they have any sand, they will survive it. I really believe that it is going to take a four prong approach to fix this problem. 1. Shore up financial institutions only where necessary and where it makes sense to do so. Heavily leveraged companies/banks must be allowed to fail. 2. Cut taxes heavily on corporations and small business. Now! 3. Cut taxes heavily on the American tax payer. Now! 4. Start cleaning house. Start with Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. It is easy – “You are fired! Don’t leave town. Department of Justice will be in touch.” Investigators – follow the money, stupid.

December 4, 2008 at 10:01 pm

mghorning

We can not begin a recovery until a bottom is raeched. The false floors we keep putting in place will have to stop. The auto companies should have walked out of congress, declared bankruptcy and started from the bottom. If Ford where to do this, they might be the third largest auto company in five years. I'm buying a house. How much is that house worth. Let the market fall and let the buyers come in. They are out there. They are waiting for the bottom.

December 4, 2008 at 9:34 pm

Sam

1. Alexis, Thank you for waking up. You are now experiencing what most of Americans were experiencing two months ago. For me, the fear and anger over what my government is doing has subsided. I have contacted my reps and senators and they just continue to ignore my concerns. I have no control over the decisions government is making, but I can control how I prepare for the inevitable. Am I buying 500 rolls of toilet paper? No! I am preparing by reading more, keeping a watchful eye on the headlines, and doing what I need to do to look out for my family, friends and neighbors (I am in a rural community and yes we take care of our neighbors) for what is more than likely coming our way. The fear will subside once you realize you can only “prepare” for what is coming. We all know it is going to be worse than bad. However, we are Americans. We will get through it. Our government may be prolonging the inevitable, or maybe they are giving Americans time to prepare, whatever the case may be….Americans will need to be strong and be prepared to take care of each other. We may be knocked down, but Americans will always get back up! Love your show and keep up the good work! Sam

December 4, 2008 at 7:09 pm

joebhed

Alexis, Your honest expression of the changing nature of economic views, and of the data that goes along with those views, is indeed refreshing today. I think you need to start off every day with an open mind about the fact that this indeed is the first day of the rest of our lives. Along with a sound understanding that the rest of our lives is not going to be like the days, years and generations that all went before. We start each day in an unprecedented situation, needing to look for alternative explanations about what to do. I hope that you can occasionally get out of the box where your job is related to seeing that investors get good advice on your programs. Honest, open-minded people know that each day opens a brand new dialogue about economics, money, politics and the unknowable future. Your post shows that this is the case today. I want to offer a suggestion. We cannot devise a solution to a problem without knowing, that is, truly understanding, its cause. The cause of the problems that we all face today can be broken down to its most essential element - debt money. In order to move forward, some people are going to have to get out front and declare the true problem. Debt money. ALL MONEY IS CREATED AS DEBT. Payable at interest. Lots of interest. That is not created. Except as more debt. The definition of unsustainability. Which is reflected in those faces you observe. Google Treasury System versus Federal Reserve. Google the Chicago Plan and FDR. Monetary reform. Or, an international FED of private bankers. Respectfully.

December 4, 2008 at 6:04 pm

Umpire

I can't agree with you about Saks - never been in one. When asked to describe the fiscal situation, I suggest listening to the Abbott and Costello classic "Who's on First?". That's the best visualization of how I see Washington-they can't fix the problem because they don't understand the question.

December 4, 2008 at 5:35 pm

Jim Turner

Well someone had to finally day the obvious "the emperor has no clothes on". You are the first of many.

December 4, 2008 at 4:46 pm

Jordan

Pretty much, I'm no economist, but I haven't seen anything but "more free money" parroted as a solution by those in power. They're just trying to push off the inevitable for a few more years. Hopefully GM will go down, the chaos will ensue, the markets will then correct regardless of what the gov does and the economy will rebuild on a solid foundation. I feel bad for those who have lost and are going to lose their jobs, but if your job was built on a company that was riding the bubble then there is no way to sustain the job. We're headed for hard times, and be prepared to fight our own government for our rights. Plenty of blame to go around. It's time to let the correction happen.

December 4, 2008 at 4:38 pm

Shelby

I can't wait to see the Nardelli interview! Hope it went well. I read Greta's blog yesterday about him rejecting her interview: http://gretawire.foxnews.com/2008/12/03/this-is-too-much-wait-until-you-read-this-chrysler-ceo-nardelli/ Interesting stuff. P.S. Great Sharen Turney/ Victoria's Secret story! I was lucky enough to talk to her in Miami and I get the sense that she really believes in and loves her company's products.

December 4, 2008 at 4:31 pm

freddie the freeloader

Deep down inside, we knew it would come to this. They screwed us. They really, really screwed us (with many thanks to Sally Fields!). I hope that God has mercy on their souls, for I, and many others, will be hard pressed to forgive them as they sail off into the sunset to their Carribean islands leaving Mr. and Ms. America to sweat, starve, strive, and barely survive. Our government and our business leaders have run amuck over the American economy, raping and pillaging their way towards their golden parachutes. Most of us play fair. Most of us are law-abiding. If our corporate leaders are criminals and our officials don't prosecute them, the lesson is lost. We are lost. We are, aren't we?

December 4, 2008 at 4:22 pm

Tom

If truly want reform & accountability we need to look past Japan's recession, past the depression and more than a couple of centuries ago for solid advice. I never thought I'd say (type) this but the French were correct. The greatest tool of reformation has been the guillotine, this would adequately replace the "TARP" and nullify your unpleasant data Mrs. Glick. Let's put meaning back into the cliche "Heads will roll!" Happy Holidays.

December 4, 2008 at 4:18 pm

Ken

????? Is this suppose to be breaking news??

December 4, 2008 at 3:57 pm

Randal

Alexis, Love listening to your insights and reporting on Fox Business and Fox News... I wish you would get deep into the auto industry numbers. The real estate the financial companies the manufacturing and the dealerships. The cursory reviews are redundant and actually uninformative. Ask Nardelli why he hasnt closed more plants, why they continue to invest in the "future" when there is no present...... I have built and sold two businesses and gone through tough times.... Please get off the surface and get deep into the numbers.

December 4, 2008 at 3:36 pm

Randal

Alexis, Love listening to your insights and reporting on Fox Business and Fox News... I wish you would get deep into the auto industry numbers. The real estate the financial companies the manufacturing and the dealerships. The cursory reviews are redundant and actually uninformative. Ask Nardelli why he hasnt closed more plants, why they continue to invest in the "future" when there is no present......

December 4, 2008 at 3:34 pm

mike frick

How does taking (stealing) my money and giving it to a company that was not competitive in the marketplace save jobs? If the company was not producing a product that the consumer wanted at a price the consumer would pay, the company cannot sustain itself. Taking my money to pay those to continue to produce unwanted products at the undesired price will only prolong the inevitable. When the money is gone, the jobs will still be lost and I will be poorer for it. Get real. Keep government out of economics. Manipulating the market for political reasons is not in the interest of liberty for the individual or free markets. Mike Frick Yorkville, IL

December 4, 2008 at 3:25 pm

about this blog

  • Alexis Glick is an anchor for FOX Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, Glick served as a correspondent for the Today Show and co-anchored the third hour of that program. Before her stint at NBC News, she was the senior trading correspondent for CNBC and reported from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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