Glick Report
  • October 8, 2008 01:30 PM EDT by Alexis Glick

    We Need to Start Thinking Constructively

    Are we behaving rationally? Is what we are seeing the normal unwinding of risk? How much more fear do we need to see for markets to stabilize?

    The questions are pouring in. The answers are all over the map. If one more person says the sky is falling, I am going to lose my mind. Believe me, I have been bearish and noted it many months ago on this blog, but we need to start talking constructively. I am now on the borderline of anger. There is no pill that we can swallow that will fix this problem in hours or days. You cannot unwind trillions of assets and not experience a correction. Let’s listen to the experts, but let’s also look at historical data. I am no expert, but I did spend eight years on a trading floor trading hundreds of millions of dollars. When sentiment shifts this aggressively in one direction, markets correct themselves. This doesn’t mean we are going to have a huge rally and all will be fine. The markets have already almost corrected 40%. The average correction for the major indices during a market correction, recession or bubble bursting is 40%. At one point, do we stand up and say enough is enough?! People keep telling me we haven’t hit a point of capitulation yet, but is the market functioning normally? Didn’t we prevent short-selling in a little less than 1,000 financial companies? In aggregate, those stocks are down north of 16%, probably 18% as we speak. What did that do? It wiped out long, short portfolios from trading in this market, largely hedge funds. It prevented short covering activity and it caused mass hysteria in the credit default swap market because short-sellers had to look for other places to make negative bets.

    We need to look at the functionality and rationality by which we look at these markets. Where is the Uptick Rule? Short selling in financials expires at midnight tonight. What will that do to the market when short-sellers return? Will it be as catastrophic as everyone expects? Do away with naked short selling. Yes. Bring back the Uptick Rule. Yes. Create circuit breakers in individual stocks as opposed to 1,200 point declines. Yes. We need to look at the structure of the markets. Capitulation may NOT occur this time around. This correction started 18 months ago. This started in the winter of 2007, March of 2007 to be exact. On average, cycles like this last two years. Could this one last longer? Sure. We are in the eye of the storm. If a hurricane is flying through the Gulf of Mexico and the weather authorities say it’s a Category 2 or 3, that’s a guesstimate based on the path of the storm at that moment. The hurricane has just made landfall. It was a Category 5. The Federal response and preparedness is there. Was it as aggressive or as prepared as it should have been? No. When the eye of the storm hits, people take shelter and they run. What happens when the storm passes? You step out of the shelter and you see the sun. You assess the damage and you rebuild. How long does that rebuilding take? It takes TIME. This is the United States of America, the largest economy in the world, the largest importer and exporter in the world with a currency that is rallying in the face of this financial crisis.

    I am not a financial expert. I am frustrated like so many of you. I want answers. I want a regulatory framework that will deal with these issues in the future. I want a real resolution to this housing crisis. If Paulson is correct, housing caused this problem and housing will need to help cure it. Where is our resolution to housing? So far the announcements out of the Treasury and the Fed have done little to calm the markets fears. We need to go back to the drawing board and think about some of the cures. Perhaps we need to look at what Axel Merk said and recapitalize the financial institutions. Perhaps we need to tell them that when we recapitalize them, they have to guarantee that a certain percentage of the money will be used toward lending. Maybe as Ed Yardeni points out, purchasing and resetting mortgages is a lot less costly than we think? Look at the Treasury auctions this morning. Signs of life? Maybe? Fannie Mae’s T-bill auction results were better. The 3 month T-bill was down 80 basis points over last weeks 1.55% yield. Two weeks ago the rate was 2.95%. The 6-month rate was 1.84%, down from 3.19% a week ago and 3.40% 2 weeks ago.

    This morning, some of the brightest minds joined me to talk about the coordinated emergency rate cut: Daniel Shaffer with Shaffer Asset Management who sat on my show in July and said the S&P was going to 1060 and the Dow to 8600 to 9600; Jeff Sachs, a world renowned economist and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University who has repeatedly named one of the most influential people in the world; Raghavan Seetharaman, the CEO of Doha Bank, one of the biggest in Qatar. Why does he feel more sovereign wealth funds will buy on U.S. weakness? Why is he starting to consider purchasing a U.S. bank as opposed to purchasing a bank in the emerging markets like Brazil?

    Watch the videos and find out.

GlobalismIsHere

You mean we haven't been thinking constructively ? Yeah, that explains it. Imagine your neighborhood deregulated of law. Hey, let's deregulate the financial sector ! No, you don't deregulate laws. Laws are what makes society work. Wall Street - you and your friends at Fox included have had the ride of your life. Martha did time.

October 15, 2008 at 12:07 pm

Jeff

Karl Denninger at http://market-ticker.denninger.net predicted this crisis WAY before the media was talking about it. He strongly believes that the 700+ billion dollar bailout is NOT going to solve the problem, and is only going to worsen the situation. He believes the problem is a matter of TRUST and not a matter of "liquidity." He has a solution called "The Genesis Plan". I urge you to visit his site, and consider his analysis seriously. He is a "NO BS" kind of guy. Whether or not you like his choice of language he sometimes uses to express his anger, you would have to admit that he has an excellent understanding of this crisis that goes WAY beyond most of the analyists you see in the media. His solution is worth a try, if only anyone in the government could give it the consideration it deserves. Please check out his site. You can also google "Market Ticker" to get to his site.

October 15, 2008 at 12:39 am

Jeff in cinci

Buy the utilities NOT the banks then sell electric at cost. Housing doesn't have to be the core of the plan... Energy should be the core. If they want to help Main Street then they need to help with monthly bills and create jobs. Just buying some mortgages only helps some and it may only help them temporarily. BUT IF we had cheaper energy it would help EVERYONE every month and it would help business and it would make goods cheaper to produce and cheaper to buy it would create jobs and bring business to this country, creating even more job. Cheap energy would help defeat terrorism by not supporting terrorist nations and it would keep 700B from being outsourced in petro-dollars every year. Please think monthly bills and stop focusing on housing only plan that only helps Wall Street. Thanks Jeff Brannan

October 11, 2008 at 2:56 pm

jk

I thought I heard it is only 5% of home loans in trouble. If that is true, I don't understand how this small percentage can cause this panic. Please, someone explain this.

October 10, 2008 at 2:45 am

Juana-no

I am not an economist...but this is pretty simple to me, or tell me where I am wrong. 1) folks w/money: start buying cheap stock affect: the stock market stabilizes & this ACTION increases the confidence of the American public moreso than...great words 2) The Fed Reserve has injected $$$ to support the banks, so no need for Banks to be impatient, & they now can stop foreclosing on homeowners, as banks cannot do anything w/houses noone wants to buy right now...so allow people to refinance their homes, or lower payments due (however it works) which allows people to continue to remain in their homes & pay their mortgages. which 1) prevents more bankruptcies 2) less homeless -- less crime & allows people to continue to pay/gain equity in their homes & remain safe & productive citizens in addition it will keep money flowing in the economy...I always said, if the company's & stockholders allow all the jobs to go overseas, then the American workers don't have jobs & thereby can no longer 1) go to the movies; the local market; or buy a car, then 2) the movie owner cannot buy a new Cessna plane, therefore the aircraft industry has to lay off & then those workers cannot buy the new car his was planning on buying, thereby affecting the auto industry even more--1 big cycle. We have to ensure Corporate/stockholder greed no longer overrides common sense.

October 10, 2008 at 12:39 am

Rich

To pay off the national debt, would it be a good idea to have the 26 to 35 million illegal immigrants become legal or something, in order for them to start paying taxes and start contributing to the debt. If 26 million illegal immigrants paid an average of 900 dollars a month, that would add over 2 TRILLION dollars to this countries tax revenue. Since these people were not paying taxes to begin with we could just throw that money at the debt until it is completely paid off, or use it to bail out wall street. Just a thought, and wanted to know what you thought.

October 9, 2008 at 10:52 pm

mark smith

Its all too funny really. Rearrange those deck chairs! Be gald you can hear the band playing on the upper deck... at least those pesky life boats didnt block your view. America land of foolish greed and partisan politics going down by the head.

October 9, 2008 at 6:55 pm

jeff saturday

"IMO, the reason the global financial situation has deteriorated is the various players have reacted incorrectly to the housing collapse, and this is because they fail to view what has occurred as a mania. If one doesn’t accurately assess the cause of the problem, solutions are bound to fail. It’s like this Washington; people were gambling, on a scale unseen in the history of man. And treating failed gamblers like they are victims can only make the situation worse:" quote by Ben Jones Housing bubble blog

October 9, 2008 at 3:09 pm

Walter

This has become an emotional issue. People have lost confidence in the leadership of most banks. If you were to give these banks a huge check, without regulations and oversight, the public would revolt. Personally, I am loathe to require additional regulation, but folks at the helm of some of banks have proven to be incompetant. Thus, I don't buy Axel's recommendation. If we had Jamie Dimon, or Blankenfeld (spelling ??) type people at each of the banks then I'd have no issue. Then again, we wouldn't be in this prediciment either.

October 9, 2008 at 12:43 pm

Ken

You said that you are "Boarder line angry" "We should not have let Lehman fail" "lisen to the millionare CEOs and Execs" You said it all when you said "I was a trader on Wall Street" Lets make sure your buddies do not lose there jobs.

October 9, 2008 at 10:10 am

John L

Why didn't the government (all of them) just let the market go its own way and sink or swim on its own merits? Maybe an adverb or adjective would help clear this up. Try Greed? Avarice? Bull-headedness? Who ever thought up sub prime mortgages anyway? Who came up with the idea that selling a $120,000.00 home to someone making $18,000.00 a year was a good idea? Try another helping word, Accountability!!!!

October 9, 2008 at 9:30 am

Kraken

The allegorical allude to hurricanes when describing market fear inspired this metaphor to muse: Fear is to markets as Planck's constant is to classical physics- conventional wisdom in the quantum mechanical paradigm is often lacking. The uncertainty principle of fear trumps rationality, superseding the fortitude to stick it out. There is never a call to evacuate a market crash like there is a hurricane for obvious reasons, -you are left to figure out on your own if you can not weather the storm, and likewise the only 'Mayor of Galveston' to warn to stay away or return is you and/or your personal financial adviser. No, this isn't a hurricane, this is a black hole... greed and lies are the singularity, trust, confidence, and the bailout tax dollars of an unwilling public have already crossed the event horizon and it continues to feed, siphoning retirement savings and the short term future of Main Street. Sky Falling? The sky *may* fall on the architects of the mortgage crisis, those part of the problem instead of the solution, it likely will fall on congress because the voters will remember in November, the candidate that inherits the 'pie in the sky' of presidency will end up wearing it in the face however because voters memories are short after all, and many of us in general will be forced down to earth for the duration of a recession. It is wishful thinking to cling to anything more than this as the best case scenario. This alone is enough to make you feel angry.

October 9, 2008 at 2:06 am

Robert

As the saying goes, "You can have anything you want but you cannot have everything you want". On October 3, our representatives in Washington and our Money Masters in NYC decided to save the Welfare State and place a (sub prime) mortgage on the future of our children and grandchildren The decision was made, even if it meant partial or total nationalization of our banking system. The truth of what was done is unpleasant to some (I hope), but failure is not an option. Creation of legal tender until the zeros require new definitions (what comes after trillion?) is done without conscience or hesitation. So I agree, get all the great men and women of renown to show us where to walk through this Marxist minefield. We will need them desperately if we manage to come out the other side with our principles in tact; there will be much to be done and undone. A good starting point would be the matter posted by joebhed above. Another thought; atheism and Marxism go together like bread and butter, so you should shun any faithless geniuses. They can provide their services to France. That's my Constructive Thinking for now.

October 8, 2008 at 8:09 pm

TJF

The Federal Reserve is a ruse, that should be abolished immediately. Please stop repeating the "housing started this" mantra that the scoundrels would like us to believe. The housing problem is a symptom of the "chronic bubble syndrome" unleashed by the self-serving, greed mongers empowered by the Fed, and enabled by the dolts in congress who gutted or removed almost every prudent oversight that existed to prevent this very thing. Many of us in the real world could see this train wreck coming for a long time. What naivete'.

October 8, 2008 at 7:44 pm

Art

Alexis, You are today where I was yesterday. A fascinated but concerned bystander, growing slightly angry. Last night, listening to the debates and pondering Obama's massive spending plans coupled with equally massive tax hikes, and then watching bloomberg.com on my iPod touch as Asian markets melted some more, knowing we would suffer another bad drop today, only to be perked up by a dramatic announcement that the Fed cut rates another 50 basis points. I wondered how much more the average joe can take before he loses his mind and panic breaks out. That is, even more panic than the tip of the iceberg that we've seen so far. I watched as undecided voters went on and on about ridiculous things that don't matter about the candidates and the debate. They didn't like McCain's joke; Obama sat down too much; Why can't we see Tom Brokaw's upper teeth. No wonder neither candidate speaks deeply about any important issues. There was a moment at 3am this morning where I started losing hope. Then my wife and I discussed what's going on with our firm (we do taxes, estate planning, and more), and the likelihood of getting paid in full and on time, and how we would ride out the bumps with uncertain credit options... and I suddenly grew angry. You'll get there too once you realize that your husband, being an entrepreneur, is being utterly ignored in this massive rescue package (that he's paying for). Here's what I see coming: Ben & Friends will meet in a couple weeks during the regularly scheduled Fed meeting and drop rates another 1/2%. This will give us that needed 1% drop without appearing desperate. At some point, Banks will, either by public scorn or by an act of congress, start actually lending money at rates that slightly resemble the drastic cuts in rates gifted by the Fed. Their spreads are large so they have room for reductions. Alan Greenspan said recently that about 50% of consumer spending comes out of either capital gains or home equity. It certainly doesn't flow out of stagnant wages and easy credit is gone. We have little hope in the short run for capital gains. So maybe, just maybe, the banks will offer loan packages attractive enough that those 95% of us that pay our bills and mortgages on time can take part in this self-paid-for recovery bill and refinance our mortgages at a lower rate. If credit starts to flow and the average consumer can benefit from lower rates, this economy should start to stabilize. The key is banks have to allow rates for all manner of consumer loans to drop (including Jumbo loans) and they have to start lending. That's the part that has been missing. I'm glad we are investing in suspect assets created by wall street, but until we get some direct aid to the rest of us, it's all for nothing. Who cares if businesses can get credit if there's no point in creating a widget or providing a service because the consumer can't afford it. Rant over.

October 8, 2008 at 6:39 pm

Bill RUTH

If I wasn't laughing so hard I'd be crying, Queen Nancy wants another $150bn!!! When will the throwing money down a blackhole to cover Democart misconduct stop, never as long as they are still in power.

October 8, 2008 at 5:29 pm

jerseygirl

The TV shows have interviewed everyone from Wall Street to my next door neighbor about the subprime mortgage mess but why haven't they interviewed anyone in the mortgage servicing industry who are conducting the foreclosures? Ask the servicing industry what can be done to work with distressed homeowners. The big shop servicers who service, collect, and foreclose the individual loans belonging to subprime mortgage backed securities have nothing but disdain for their customers. They are not creative in helping distressed homeowners. They refuse payment plans and modifications. They foreclose and evict readily. Today, the Cook County sheriff has halted evictions because banks are evicting paying renters. Well the renters are still paying the foreclosed property owner because they don't know that the property was foreclosed. The mortgage servicer should have applied for a rent receivership through the courts and appointed a property manager. It is more profitable for a bank to resell a bank-owned income-producing property than a vacant property. The government officials should be rewriting collection and servicing rules for the subprime loans. Not just buying the loans so they can do the servicers job.

October 8, 2008 at 5:24 pm

Anne

Interesting article. I prepare tax returns and I think all policticians should be required to complete their own tax returns for at least one year to see how complex the tax laws have become. Also, I hope they will consider an increase in the amount of capital losses that you are allowed to deduct. It has been limited to $3000 for many years.

October 8, 2008 at 4:59 pm

Allen

Where does Christopher Cox get off changing a rule in place for over 70 years meant to protect us from financial terrorism? Cox has no idea how markets work. His incompetence is just mind-boggling. "Oh yeah, go ahead and naked short recklessly too while you're at it. Who cares if you have no legal right to short a non-borrowed share, we trust you'll deliver it within a few days (or maybe a year or two, it doesn't matter, right?). Go ahead and spread some rumors, too. We'll be out of office soon so maybe the next guy will investigate it. Oh yeah, go ahead and monkey around with the Credit Default Swaps, it's all good." Is this really a free market? Seems a bit lopsided to me. Cox is a joke.

October 8, 2008 at 4:00 pm

about this blog

  • Alexis Glick is an anchor for FOX Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, Glick served as a correspondent for the Today Show and co-anchored the third hour of that program. Before her stint at NBC News, she was the senior trading correspondent for CNBC and reported from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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