Glick Report
  • September 30, 2008 01:05 PM EDT by Alexis Glick

    If No Bailout, What Should We Do?

    Wow. Certainly struck a chord on that bailout blog! I am thrilled to see the discussion unfold in the commentary. That is why I write this blog. I also notice that everyone who replied did not want to see a bailout. So what would you prefer to see? If we can mutually agree that something needs to happen, what would you like to see happen? Send me your ideas. I am not suggesting that any one of us doesn’t understand the issues. I am simply suggesting that the evidence each day builds in favor of something. What that something is, nobody knows for sure. I just wonder what happens if the market were to sell off another 1,000 or 2,000 points. At one point do we address the fear? Look at something that a frequent guest of mine Richard Suttmeier wrote from ValuEngine. He has been well ahead of this story and is a student of banking. He knows the intricacies of the banking infrastructure in ways that I certainly don’t.

    The Technical Line in the Sand – 10,625 Dow

    The rebound for the Dow Industrial Average needs to result in a close today above the 120-month simple moving average at 10,625 to avoid a monthly close below that average since July 1982. If we get the negative close, we confirm a multi-year BEAR MARKET.

    Dow Theory is in Bearish Mode
    Closes on Monday were below the July 15 closing lows for both the Dow Transports and the Dow Industrials: 4,657.56 Dow Transports and 10,962.54 Dow Industrials were the July closing lows.

    Suttmeier’s Fearless Prediction of the Week

    Here’s what I predicted in the VE Sector Focus: “With or without a $700 billion Wall Street Bailout Bill the Dow Industrial Average will not end September below its 120-month simple moving average at 10,625.” We need the Dow up 259 at today’s close for my prediction to be correct. I thought that the longer-term bearish call will be delayed until the end of October.

    The catalyst to confirm a multi-year BEAR MARKET will be miserable third quarter earnings from community and regional banks.

    Congratulations to FDIC Chair Sheila Bair – She gets it!

    FDIC Chair Sheila Bair successfully orchestrated the failure of WaMu, and the take-under of Wachovia by Citigroup.

    WaMu was the sixth largest US bank with $353 billion in assets at the end of the second quarter. There was a run on the bank last week, and with $60 billion in Alt-A Loans failing action was needed. The FDIC in cutting a deal with JP Morgan protected 100% of US deposits, which pushes JP Morgan’s assets to $1.8 trillion, second to Bank of America.

    Monday’s deal was a more complex. Citigroup takes over the banking operations of Wachovia on more creative thinking by Sheila Bair. Citi becomes the first $2.1 trillion bank with $782 billion of Wachovia. Wachovia has a $122 billion exposure to Alt-A mortgages. Without analyzing the details it appears that Wachovia will operate as an independent entity similar to Countrywide and for the same reason – These combo’s are above the legal limit for deposits in California.

    I credit Monday’s FDIC actions on Wachovia as a reason the Bailout Plan was defeated. In the FDIC press release Sheila Bair stated, “On the whole, the commercial banking system in the United States remains well capitalized.” “This action was necessary to maintain confidence in the banking industry given current financial market conditions.”

    Kudos to Sheila Bair!

    The FDIC Dug Deep into its Toolbox in the Citi / Wachovia Deal

    The tool is called the “systemic risk exception”. Using this exception for the first time, the FDIC covered part of Citi's cost should the loss on Wachovia's assets exceed $42 billion. In return the FDIC received $12 billion in preferred stock and warrants from Citi. This allowed all depositors to be protected.

    The FDIC completed the deal without formal failure conducting what’s called an open-bank transaction, for the first time since 1992.

    This systemic-risk exception required the approval of the Federal Reserve Board and Treasury Department and consultation with President Bush. This is what we need to avoid a $700 billion bailout bill. This cooperation between regulators to do what’s right for the American people, within the letter of the laws and lifelines available is a huge help in thawing the Credit Markets.

    The FDIC should be the centerpiece to a Housing Solution without a Bailout Bill

    The FDIC should use a provision of the 1991 law and request that all US deposits be backed by the US government. This will stop runs on the banks both through lines on Main Street, and through on-line banking. This would restart the flow of credit on Main Street as smaller banks are reluctant to lend as depositors go elsewhere.

    The FDIC has two lines of credit with the US Treasury. A $30 billion line direct to the US Treasury has never been tapped. A $40 billion line of credit to the Federal Finance Bank, which is used on occasion when the FDIC takes on illiquid assets.

    Funding for mortgage relieve through the FDIC can be funded by the Federal Finance Bank

    The US Treasury should increase the size of US Treasury auctions at these historically low rates and put the proceeds under the Federal Finance Bank, which would fund an FDIC Mortgage Relief program. In effect the FDIC would channel low interest loans through the Federal Finance Bank to give every homeowner a “Mortgage Mulligan.” This is better than bailing out Wall Street.

    What the US Treasury should be doing with Fannie & Freddie

    Let’s get the geniuses of the new Federal Housing Finance Agency to do their job and evaluate the $5.4 trillion in Fannie and Freddie mortgages that are already on the back of US taxpayers. When this agency sets a fair market value for toxic mortgages the credit markets can begin the thaw.

    The Federal Reserve should expand the use of existing tools to get credit flowing.

    The New York Federal Reserve should take the toxic collateral from commercial banks and primary dealers on a 90 day Repo in exchange for a special 90-day US Treasury bill at a value of 22 cents on the dollar for the mortgage-related collateral. The Federal Reserve should cut the discount rate to 1%, keeping the federal funds rate at 2%. This takes us through year end, and should get the credit market less stressed.

    Let’s use the tools we have, and let capitalism live on in the United States of America.

Charles Pirozzi

This bill should NOT pass. I have lost over 30% of my 401k and understand that no bailout means I will lose more, but these are the consequences we must face when let greed dictate our actions. These companies, and hopefully the executives, should be allowed to fail. I have my own personal credit problems, I haven't been able to get a credit card, I can't even get a car my credit is so bad, I moved closer to my job and take the bus to work, I managed to survive without begging someone for help. This country is strong enough to get through this horrible crisis, we have faced tough challenges before but begging for a handout is not the answer, we as a Country are better than that. It will be tough for all Americans but we should look at this as a learning experience, we can not blame any person or any party. This was caused by the greed of America and that greed crosses party lines, that greed extends from the middle class to the rich. The only good thing that will come from this economic crisis is that most people will start living within their own means and not living off credit.

September 30, 2008 at 3:38 pm

BBHM

No Bailout? You can't argue with that terminology. Don't. It doesn't matter what you call it. NO RESCUE WITHOUT REGULATION and NO RESCUE WITHOUT REFORM!!! The government led the charge. US fiat currency is an IOU. The Federal Reserve Note is an instrument of debt. Smoot-Hawley. Glass-Steagal. Gramm-Leach-Bliley. Now, an aggregate of mortgages are bundled, mislabled a (SIC) "security", and the yield is based on a future that cannot be guaranteed. The risk is astronomical. The government allowed it. The government ignored it. The FDIC is corrupt. They didn't have enough money to make good on the deposits. So, instead of doing what they are supposed to do, they destroyed the capital investment of stock holders in Banks that they insured. That's my retirement--I'm a taxpayer also. Please stop saying that the FDIC is helping. You think the credit crunch is a problem. Wait to you see investment funds dry up. Bailout -- it's a bailout because we're being told that taxpayers have equity as provided in the amended paulson plan that didn't get passed, but that is being expressed by the same people who caused the problem, the same people who were asleep at the wheel. Nah, we don't care about that coming depression. Why don't we care? Because this bandaid bailout will have us right back in the same place. 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? Who knows, but it's a sure bet without regulation and reform.

September 30, 2008 at 3:33 pm

Josh

This all started with housing. It has not improved because there are so many people still willing to get into with both feet. In basic term, too much supply. This BILLout will not help the main street America. When Wall Street bankers get BILLout, they will only cause themselves more trouble in lending enough to boost the housing market. The top dog executives get to retire with their hundreds of millions of taxpayer's dollars. The best thing is to let the market take care of it. Let those that made bad decisions file bankrupty. Set BILLout to secure the actual Main Street America's deposits. It's John Adam's "Creative Destruction". It hurts for a little while. But what comes out is a more efficient system in the banking business system.

September 30, 2008 at 3:30 pm

Robert

It is time to take out the garbage. It stinks. This mess was created on our watch. We must not pass it on to the next (several) generation(s). Liberty is worth more than all the money on Wall Street and all the pieces of paper with pictures of dead Presidents the Fed can print.

September 30, 2008 at 3:30 pm

Dennis Biennas

Have the experts and the government been wrong before? Yes they have. The experts on your channel constantly make predictions that do not come true. This is not an exact science. This problem stems from loans that should not have been made. The magnitude of these loans created banking giants and institutions to handle the volume. These institutions have to fail for our economy to go forward. The institutions and their supporters want the government to take these toxic loans off their hands. We are back to the status quo. There has to be change. Without change there will be no improvement. Let the strong survive and the weak fail. I do not believe that the entire economic system will come to a girding halt. It seems that the loudest proponents of this package complain that they will only be able to loan to individuals with good credit. DUH You know it may be hard to accept the fact that we cannot fix everything. Maybe it is time to go back to a savings based society rather than a credit based society.

September 30, 2008 at 3:19 pm

Ben

"How fortunate for leaders that men do not think." Adolf Hitler "The victor will never be asked if he told the truth." Adolf Hitler

September 30, 2008 at 3:17 pm

stephenlee

Lower interest rates to 5% or 5.5% so that people in homes with adjustable rates can refinance. Those that cannot, the banks get their house. If these loans are merely the only problem, then the problem will end within a year. I suspect that there is more to the problem than mortgages and that is why such a large sum of money is needed! Also, if main street is really affected like everyone says, then how come wall street never shared with us their profits when times were good,i.e. when paulson took 500million from goldman. Wher was the main street share? Thanks, Alexis for doing such agreat job reporting for us to make it somewhat understandable.

September 30, 2008 at 3:16 pm

Todd

Alexis, One thing that bothers me is that my family makes 300K a year, we owe 400K on our house pretty good, but average in So. Calif. We never took additional equity out, while people I know took out 1M in equity to buy more property. So we are in better shape than people who could not afford there house and others who took to much equity out to buy more propoert. If the rescue/bailout does not happen, what are we looking at clasping? 10% unemployeement? 10% interest rates? no one has said what specifics could happen. what will interest rates go to? what is the worst unemployment number? what other things could happen.

September 30, 2008 at 3:13 pm

Lee Daniel

If we are not going to let the market take care of itself and intervention is the bottom line then we should do 3 things and quit talking about a bailout. We should do the following. 1) Insure for the losses. A lot cheaper. We don't know that there will be these types of losses. The insurance will lower the risk and ease market concerns. 2) Fix the accounting rule, mark to market. Change it back to a rolling 3 yr average but with closer supervision from the regulators. 3) Cut capital gains.

September 30, 2008 at 3:07 pm

Mike

You got it right, what is with so many other pundants screaming we must have the bailout?

September 30, 2008 at 2:15 pm

about this blog

  • Alexis Glick is an anchor for FOX Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, Glick served as a correspondent for the Today Show and co-anchored the third hour of that program. Before her stint at NBC News, she was the senior trading correspondent for CNBC and reported from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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