Glick Report
  • July 15, 2008 06:43 PM EDT by Alexis Glick

    Mapping Unchartered Territories

    So I'm getting some upset e-mails and notes that they don't like to see me in bearish mode. Scary times, my last blog, is ruffling some feathers. As I said to a couple of people today, I am always the “glass is half full” because I still believe that there are plenty of good stories out there. Which ones you ask? Movies.....great box office numbers this summer despite a writer's strike that truly could have crippled the industry. Same store sales numbers (a measure of monthly retail traffic) at the discounters like Wal-mart have been great. The Wimbledon men's finals was so sick (did you see it? :) ) that U.S. Open men's finals tickets are going for 40% more than last year. Same thing for the women's finals where everyone is hoping we'll see a repeat of Serena versus Venus Williams. Plus, have you driven through a McDonald's lately? Walked into a restaurant mid-week? Seen the dollar amounts going into emerging markets? Seen the dollars going into alternative fuels? Did you see Johnson & Johnson's earnings? Just saw Intel's release?

    Listen there is plenty of good things to talk about. I, in no way, want to discount all of the good with the bad. What I do want to do is state the facts. The facts are simple, we're in some unchartered territories and people are scared. Will this pass? Of course. Will it take longer than anyone expected months ago? Yes. Can the Fed do much? No. What we need is time and at the moment, it feels like we don't have the luxury of time! We have two headwinds.....credit market fear and record oil prices coming on full steam and frankly we were not prepared for it to be this bad or for it to last this long. Now we're going through a reality check and time will heal the wounds.

    What would I do to fix the short term problem?

    1. Enough of this change in the short tick rule. Who was nuts enough to do away with the plus tick rule? Put it back in place and prevent people from doing a run on a bank or a financial institution. Selling on plus ticks worked for generations. BRING IT BACK!!!!!

    2. Transparency. We hear too much about it. Now we REALLY need it. I want the truth. Don't sugar coat it. Bernanke did that today and my guess is he'll get good marks for it. What Wagoner did today is wake us up to the reality that he too is facing. When he started the press conference by saying 6 weeks ago at our annual shareholder meeting we did not foresee oil prices at this level and in the past six weeks we have had to re-adjust. He now is firmly committed to the reality that oil will remain between $130 and $150 dollars a barrel. Bravo. He spoke the truth. That's what we want. Transparent CEO's even when they admit that they too didn't see it coming.

    3. We need capitulation. We're starting to see some signs. What do you look for? Spikes in the VIX or the Volatility Index? It's an options tool that measures market volatility and sentiment. Today it spiked above 30. When it spikes, the market does the opposite. Often times it can signal an oversold market. Two, look at volume. We're approaching record volume levels again if you look at consolidated NYSE volume. Three, look at insider buying and short selling or open interest. All key indicators.

    Speaking of the market this SEC announcement that they will look into preventing the rumor mill from destroying or undoing a company is interesting. Can they do it? Who knows. Has it been going on for years? Yes. Does it make sense to allow a hedge fund to withdraw a prime brokerage relationship and short the same broker dealer as they did with Bear Stearns and tried to do with Lehman? NO. We need to do our homework on this. My guess is this SEC investigation has legs and heads will role. Too much money is being lost and too much risk is being taken for enforcement not to take a look at where these rumors begin and where they end. If the Bear Stearns hedge fund guys used their email to talk about bailing out of their own funds, other emails will be discovered and it won't be pretty.

    This morning on Money for Breakfast I talked to Pete Kenny, Liz Smith and Peter Cohan about this.

    Take a look.

chuck

Speaking of movies while I was on vacation in Destin,Florida,I went to the Destin Commins lifestyle Mall and thier stadium cinema Rave Motion Pictures. I saw Angelina Jolie in WANTED in digital sound and digital picture. It was so real and if u listen close enough u could the background acustics. Comparing this cinema to the now closed Pemberton 4 the old Dolby stereo sound counldn't compare to this. Also the mall cinema multiplexes aren't so profitable as they use to be. Stadium Cinemas are now the norm and I experince my first stadium cinema in Houston,Texas over 11 years ago. As for Vicksburg Ms getting a cinema there isn't no word on the issue yet. I honestly believe the local officals are quiet to hide the fact they failed in bringing in one. Now the closures of cinemans,dvds and internet downloads has have a tremendous affect in my opinion. In the past when there was summer blockbuster the numbers would be billion but I notice it has dropped in the millions. I wonder how the CEOS of Cinemark,AMC,Regal Entertianment would explain themselves. I wouldn't mine seeing the issue of closing mall cinemas addressed sometime becouse I sincerely believe it affects the box office. Here's a headsup I picked up on yesterday CEO Summer Redstone is going to buy back his daughter's stock in National Amusements. Just thought I pass it on as an FYI.

July 16, 2008 at 10:35 am

chuck

The Finacnial sector is in the UNDISCOVERED COUNTRY as Shakespeare would phrase it. For instance I've been thinking about the problems of Frannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It makes wonder these two entities are part goverment and part private sector. Honestly I can tell you the taxpayers are reaching to breaking point. I don't like the idea of this buyout of both. Paulson and Treasury don't have all the answers. But look at both mortgage banks problems: nepetism,corruption. I suspect that both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae exposed thier mortgages to the global marketplace. But Treasury Sec Paulson needs to be more open to congress on how deep the problem. Still I can't help think that these two banks played with customers' mortgages in the open marketplace like Bear Sterns. But nepetism,thier lobbyist,corruption of both fincianal entites needs to be rooted out. Further both banks need a top down management reviews to both banks need to reinvented and adjusted to the new global marketplace and realities. As for the SEC investigatiting rumors it's going to be hard to prove who spreads rumoors on Wall and Broad which spooks the marketplace. Rumors have existed in the market and sometimes a rumor turns out to be fact later on. Now Vicksburg is bad about rumors and gossip. Case in point if some of the citizens of Vicksburg ms were investigated by the SEC on rumor mongering; they would flatly deny the they spread it and some on Wall and Broad would do the same. Locally what irks me the most and pardon my biases here,is when one of the local realtors who is the cohost of the local am talk show which doesn't get no phone calls runs his mouth on the fact that Vicksburg has affordable homes. But reality is the homes aren't selling and locals are pulling thier roots to live someplace much better than this podunk. At the realtor cohost didn't see reality and as of this morning he admited the fact there are a high inventory of homes here which haven't been bought. He has confirmed the fact the housing bubble has hit home. As for the finincial ripple effects I can't help speculate if the local banks like Kootz,Trustmart and Regions are in trouble due to the credit crunch or bad mortgage exposures. I was please to see your report this morning on the local and regional banks as well.

July 16, 2008 at 9:25 am

Chuck Mailhot

What was the reason behind removing the uptick rule? Anybody could have told whomever changed the rule this would give an uneven advantage to the short sellers giving the power to manipulate and destroying companies as witnessed lately. I'm with you, bring it back for all and bring it back now. No 3 month discussion, NOW!!! Chuck M

July 16, 2008 at 9:18 am

Jonathan

Thanks Alexis. I'm not sure what the answers are with the markets in such poor shape. I agree with what you have written, but don't forget about the dollar as well. I don't see much hope coming from our elected politicians either, as our two presidential candidates seem as lost as the current one. We need elected leaders that actually understand our markets. Perhaps you should run for office. You'd get my vote! Thanks again.

July 16, 2008 at 3:58 am

about this blog

  • Alexis Glick is an anchor for FOX Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, Glick served as a correspondent for the Today Show and co-anchored the third hour of that program. Before her stint at NBC News, she was the senior trading correspondent for CNBC and reported from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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