April 16, 2008 3:18PM
Mapping the Economic Future
By Alexis Glick
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Yes, I’m still fired up… only this time about Martin Feldstein, president & CEO of the National Bureau of Economic Research! Recognize his name? If you don’t, become familiar with it. He is one of the smartest , most well-respected authorities on all things related to the economy. Feldstein is a professor at Harvard University and was the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan. He also happens to be on the Wall Street Journal’s Board of Contributors.
Now that I have pumped him up, why don’t I tell you why you should listen. First and foremost, look at our interview earlier this morning on The Opening Bell. He had some terrific insight into our current economic conditions and where he thinks we’re headed.
Part I
Part II
Here are a couple quotes from an op-ed piece he wrote in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal.
“The time for the Federal Reserve to stop reducing the federal funds rate, because the likely benefit is small compared to the potential damage.”
“In previous recessions, lower rates stimulated aggregate demand by including increased home building. But with the massive inventory of unsold homes - up 50% from a few years ago - a further cut in the fed funds rate would have little effect on housing construction.”
For the full article, click here.
NOTE: The National Bureau of Economic Research has not yet said whether or not we are headed into a recession. Feldstein did say that the weakness in the economy started in December and that he personally believes we ARE SLIDING INTO A RECESSION.”
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I watched this interview this morning and, suffering from tax season (we run a CPA office), didn’t understand his angle on dropping rates further.
His point seemed to be that lowering rates hasn’t worked its way down to the consumer level via mortgages, credit cards, etc. So therefore the Fed should stop this destructive pattern.
I think, if anything, the Fed should lower a bit more or at least leave rates low until banks slowly start lending money again! What’s the point of the lending machine in this country to start perking up and then be hammered with rising rates?
Keep rates low. The banks will eventually loosen their tight fists, and the economy will reap the due rewards from a little extra patience.
And by all means, if there are other tricks to get the banks to start lending to consumers, I’d unleash those as well.